The steel market may experience strong fluctuations in October

Looking back at the steel market in September, as of the end of the month, steel prices have shown a trend of decline rebound decline. The comprehensive price index of steel has fallen by 53 points, thread and wire prices have fallen by 47 and 52 points respectively, medium thick plate, hot-rolled and cold-rolled plate prices have fallen by 35, 63 and 22 points respectively, 62% iron ore CFR prices have risen by 1 US dollar, coke and coal prices have rebounded by 57 points, and coke comprehensive prices have fallen by 76 points. From the perspective of monthly average prices, the comprehensive steel price index fell by 58 points (thread and hot rolling fell by 74 and 54 points respectively), iron ore prices rebounded by 4 US dollars, coking coal prices fell by 1 point, and coke prices rebounded by 11 points, all of which were in line with expectations.

Looking ahead to the steel market in October, although there will be a long holiday leading to increased fundamental pressure and pressure, there will also be a recovery rebound driven by macro positive events. Only administrative production control or substantial rebound can there be a definite rebound. There are many factors that affect the price trend of the steel market in October, but the decisive ones are mainly two: one is the change in inventory, and the other is the driving force of macro events.

From the perspective of inventory, which is an important indicator of supply and demand balance and a decisive factor affecting prices, the accumulated inventory during the October holiday has put pressure on steel prices, but the subsequent destocking has also laid the foundation for a restorative rebound in steel prices.

In summary, despite the increase in accumulated inventory and emotional pressure during the long holiday in October, the steel market was under pressure. However, the resilience of seasonal consumption combined with demand, especially the positive effects of the Fourth Plenary Session and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, provided an opportunity for steel prices to rebound after digesting fundamental pressures.